Week 4 NFL Betting: 4 Upsets to Chase

Two weeks ago we touched on some fun upset NFL picks, converting on the Titans beating the Lions and then narrowly missing on the 49ers beating the spread and New Orleans topping the Giants in New York. It wasn’t a bad start to our weekly “NFL upsets to chase” idea, where we look at what betting sites like Bovada offer us in terms of pro football betting upside, and see if it’s worth aiming a little higher than usual.

That’s precisely our intention again in week four, as there are several games that stand out as worthwhile dart throws. The NFL slate has shrunk a bit with the Thursday Night Football game already out of the way and a few teams on bye, but there is still a lot of NFL action to consider for week four. Let’s dive into our four favorite upset picks for the week:

Saints (+170) Over Chargers (-200)

This isn’t an amazing Money Line to work with, but it’s better than most that you’ll find in the NFL in week three. There’s reason to believe in the 0-3 Saints, too. They’ve at least shown up offensively for most of the year, while their best defensive performance actually came on the road in week two in a 16-13 loss to the New York Giants.

The Saints are also desperate and are searching or their first win of the 2016 NFL season. They’ll do that against an extremely depleted Chargers teams that might be playing without three key offensive linemen and tight end Antonio Gates, while they’ve already lost Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Branden Oliver and Manti T’eo for the year.

San Diego has a win and feels like the team with better balance, but there’s enough here to smell an upset. With both of these teams going nowhere in 2016, it only makes sense they both come out of week four at a dispiriting 1-3.

Titans (+175) Over Texans (-210)

Tennessee is another mild upset pick we should consider this week, as it’s entirely possible the Texans could be reeling from the loss of star pass rusher J.J. Watt, as well as a crushing 27-0 blowout loss in week three. The Titans leave a lot to be desired offensively, but have been a strong force on defense through the season’s first three weeks.

Divisional games can often be toss-ups, which is why it could be interesting when DeMarco Murray and co. go for their second win of 2016 against a hated rival. If Murray is effective and Tennessee’s defense shows up, the Houston offense could potentially endure rough sledding for the third week in a row. Should that happen, the Titans figure to be a decent upset pick.

Browns (+275) Over Redskins (-350)

This is where week four really gets interesting, as the Redskins just aren’t a very good team, yet they’re being given major benefit of the doubt here. We’ve already see Washington get blown out at home and lose a close game in week two, while it’s always tough to put complete trust in Kirk Cousins. Cousins and co. do tend to be at their best in D.C., but should they falter, the ambitious Browns could lunge at the opportunity to win their first game of the year.

That’s not at all crazy, considering the Browns have been very competitive the last two weeks and seem to be getting closer to that elusive first win. Cleveland’s clever usage of Terrelle Pryor could make them a threat against a shaky defense that has struggled through the first three games. The Redskins are the correct favorite, but if the Browns can keep it close, it’s possible their gimmicky offense could pull out the upset win late.

Rams (+300) Over Cardinals (-400)

Again, anytime there are favorable odds in a divisional game, we need to give it a good, hard look. This one may especially warrant our attention, considering the Cardinals looked horrendous last week and Los Angeles has really stepped up it’s defense over the past two weeks.

If the Rams come out firing defensively and can get Todd Gurley going on offense, they remain a very real threat against a familiar opponent. It’s definitely tough to see Arizona dropping to 1-3 at home against a seemingly inferior team, but in the NFC West, all bets tend to be off.

Like most weeks, none of these week 4 upset picks are sure things. However, there is solid logic supporting these four underdogs this week and they may warrant a flier bet to see if you can’t win big. That doesn’t mean we should throw down huge bets, but hitting the right underdog can be quite beneficial. No matter what you do, good luck with your NFL betting this week!


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