Utilizing NFL Trends in Your Sports Betting
When Wagering on NFL Games Monitor Tendencies and Prevailing Styles
What worked last season on the gridiron may be passé this year. The great team that ran off 14 straight wins and annihilated everyone in the playoffs may be struggling. The club that struggled to score is now able to put 20, 30 or more points on the board with ease. What do all of these things mean when it comes to sports betting?
The first thing that they illustrate is that once a season is over it is over and it’s time to focus on the here and now. The fact is very few teams in the NFL ever go to two straight Super Bowls forget about winning two in a row. With the advent of a new NFL season, here are some trends that might influence your success in sports betting.
Coming of Age
One ongoing trend in the NFL that influences sports betting is the coming of age of promising players. This is especially true at one position—quarterback. It’s unusual for a quarterback to have a big impact in their first or even second NFL season. The transition from college to pro ball, where the players are all bigger and better, the schemes are more complicated and the skill set is more advanced, usually precludes a rookie signal caller from making their debut and certainly from having a huge impact.
The trend has been for new quarterbacks to really blossom in their third season. Look for teams where this trend may manifest itself. By the way, a few years ago numerous rookie quarterbacks did have huge seasons. That was a new and very different trend for a single season. The thing about trends is you do have to anticipate and be ready for possible shifts.
There’s the falling apart trend in the NFL. This refers to players and their longevity. Certain types of players have a certain NFL shelf life. As an example, most running backs tend see their output and efficacy diminish around their tenth season. All of sudden that player who averaged 1000 yards plus, 3.8 yards per carry and a dozen touchdowns can’t seem to rev it into high gear. The constant banging by big linemen, the taxing and nagging injuries and the mental punishment have all taking their toll.
With receivers, the failure rate in terms of performance is around the 12th year. Quarterbacks vary quite a bit but many of the best hang in there and do well for a dozen-plus years. Primarily, you want to monitor injuries to players and chart them from year to year. If a player has been missing a decent amount of time for the past two years and they’ve been in the league six or more, then chances are this trend will continue in the new season.
If you see such a pattern developing, you need to assess if the club is deep in that position and has adequate replacements ready to go. If they aren’t and don’t, they could be in for a long season and so too could you if you’re counting on them to make you a winner in the sports betting realm.
When it comes to sports betting the worst thing you can see from any team is complacency. It tends to be rampant in two types of teams—those who have been at the top for a few years, especially those that have won the Super Bowl, and those who have done poorly the past few seasons and have lost any hope that they have a shot at a championship. It’s most likely you’ll see the complacency trend in these two types of teams. Anticipate it and before wagering look for evidence of it in teams and individual players.
Sports Betting and Staying in the Game
In order to do your best in sports betting, it is essential that you look for and recognize these trends and also that you are able to indentify the times when these trends may be reversing themselves. Players, teams and the league are not static entities and over time players and organizations are slowly cycling from top to bottom and bottom to top. Stay current and become a keen observer and you’ll be winning at sports betting.