The AFC South could get very interesting in 2016. A year ago the Indianapolis Colts were the unquestioned division threats and even Super Bowl contenders. It would instead be the Houston Texans who would steal the AFC South crown and advance to the playoffs.

A year later the Texans again seem to be in good shape to make a run, but with Indy getting a healthy Andrew Luck and Houston facing their own health problems this time around with J.J. Watt’s back surgery, things feel very much up in the air. Throw in improving Tennessee and Jacksonville teams, and the AFC South is as tough to predict as it has been in years.

Let’s take a closer look at each team’s AFC South odds as we try to come away with the best bet to win the division in 2016:

Houston Texans (+190)

One thing we can’t say about Houston this year is that they didn’t try to get better. After enduring a season of mediocrity under center and seeing star running back Arian Foster go down, the team went out and landed quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. The team even drafted a running mate for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in first round prospect Will Fuller, at least on the surface potentially dramatically improving an inconsistent offense.

With an elite defense and solid coaching leading the way, Houston’s offense would simply have to not mess up and the Texans should be right back in the thick of a playoff run. That was all before star defensive lineman J.J. Watt herniated a disc in his back and needed to undergo back surgery recently.

There is still optimism that Watt can make a full recovery and miss little (if possible no) time. However, if Watt is off the field or not himself on it, Houston’s staunch defense could take a hit. From there, Houston’s odds to win the division could suffer. Needless to say, the rest of Houston’s defense could be forced to step up, while there could be even more pressure on their off-season offensive changes to make a big impact.

This all could add up to a killer run for the Texans, or it could blow up in their face with one man’s injury. Only time will tell.

Indianapolis Colts (+140)

A Super Bowl contender just last year, the Colts have to be in the mix for the AFC South title, if only just by default. Houston not being completely healthy certainly works in their advantage, as does getting a healthy and focused Andrew Luck back under center.

Luck was struggling even before going down with an injury last year, but with hopefully better pass protection and a declining Andre Johnson out the door, the Colts could be better than ever on offense. As much as the offense struggled in 2015, though, they’re still not the real problem. Chuck Pagano’s elite defense he was supposed to bring over from Baltimore has never really found it’s footing in Indiana and it’s high time it finally does.

Indianapolis is still probably the most talented team in this division, but talent doesn’t win you division titles by itself. Luck will have to be as good as ever in 2016, and his offensive line and defense can’t just sit by and hope he has the same magic that helped the Colts finish 11-5 in each of his first three seasons. No, this time Luck needs to be great and he needs some help.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+300)

If there is a true sleeper ready to overtake the AFC South, it’s the Jaguars, who slowly started their climb in 2015 and could be ready to destroy the NFL on both sides of the ball. Gus Bradley’s defense should only be better with new additions through the draft, plus the return of last year’s top pick (Dante Fowler) can only help an already improved pass rush.

On the offensive side, Chris Ivory comes in to balance out a lethargic running game, while Blake Bortles aims to keep Jacksonville’s explosive air attack going, while also cutting down on the turnovers. A lot of Jacksonville’s improvement hangs on Bortles and better decision-making, but Ivory and the offensive line working together to give the team better offensive balance should really go a long way in making life easier on the third-year quarterback.

The reality is the Jags have all the tools they need to make a run at the division. The quarterback, star receivers, stable running back talent and nasty defense – at least on paper – are all there. Jacksonville just needs to go all in and make a hard push and let the Texans and Colts know they mean business.

Tennessee Titans (+1000)

Jacksonville is a real threat, but it’s going to be awfully tough to completely write off the Titans, too. Tennessee also beefed up their rushing attack by trading for DeMarco Murray and drafting Derrick Henry, quarterback Marcus Mariota stands to improve in his second season on the job, a talented receiving corps could easily explode and a defense settling into a new scheme should be better in 2016.

Improvement is the name of the game for Tennessee, as the Titans were competitive for long spurts in 2015, but couldn’t close out close games and struggled to remain unpredictable at times on offense. Increasing their talent in the running game should make that easier, but the Titans simply need to protect Mariota better and clear out running lanes for their talented backs. Not doing either of those things led to a lot of failure in 2015 and could be a crucial roadblock again in 2016.

Tennessee’s defense also needs to improve, but upgrades in talent should aid that effort, while a better ball control offense could also play a helping hand.

It may be a lot to ask of Mariota to leap frog the Texans and Colts in just his second season, especially when you consider the raw talent he has at wide receiver may still not be disciplined enough to take things to the next level. It’s also fair to wonder if head coach Mike Mularkey – who hasn’t found much success in the NFL as a head coach – was the right man for the job.

Usually when it comes to predicting division winners, it’s going to be the teams with the fewest question marks that pass the eye test and have a real shot and making a run at the division crown. On the surface, we can probably rule out the Titans right away and while the Jags are a fun bet and have the potential to surprise, they also probably aren’t quite ready to steal the crown yet, either.

AFC South Prediction

Unsurprisingly, this thing is down to the Texans and Colts, and it could truly go either way. If we’re to believe Luck of 2015 is the Luck the Colts are stuck with, we can’t pick Indy and feel good about it. We don’t necessarily believe that to be true, though, while it’s fair to say Indy’s defense should be better, as well.

Houston could be a fun pick, but how much can we trust Watt’s recovery or the impact of the unproven Osweiler?

The reality here is Houston is the most balanced team in this division, but they also have the most red flags. With the Colts having established themselves in the past and now ready to go full bore, we like them to take their crown back in 2016.