The best preseason NFL bet usually has to do with the Super Bowl. That’s where you can go all-in on a sweet sleeper only you have confidence in, or back the storied franchise that looks to finally have the goods to get one more ring. NFL bettors can do the week-to-week game, and it’s loads of fun, but there still is nothing like nailing the Super Bowl winner before the season even starts.

Baby steps, folks, baby steps. Before we can even feel good about which teams are legit Super Bowl contenders, we need to trim the fat off of last year’s playoff teams. Not too long ago we paused to take a gander at six teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2014 but just might be knocking on the door in 2015. We’re reversing that idea today, as we point out the top teams of last season’s 12 playoff squads that are decent bets not to return to the playoffs.

Let’s break them down and see just why they might not be the best picks to make it all the way – or even to post-season play:

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona looked like a very tough team to start 2014, and until Carson Palmer went down with a torn ACL some thought they could be true Super Bowl contenders. That was before they were introduced to a musical chairs quarterback situation and even an awesome defense couldn’t save them come playoff time. Palmer returns under center for 2015, but that vaunted defense has been broken up with several key players leaving to play elsewhere. In the brutal NFC West, winning the division is surely no lock and the bottom of the division is just a loss or two away. Arizona is a strong team, but it may not take much to sink this ship.

Detroit Lions

I’m not really a believer in Matthew Stafford, but that’s not even why the Lions may fail to make the playoffs in 2015. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are both gone, which probably will take some serious bite out of what seemed to be the league’s nastiest defense a year ago. Jim Caldwell runs a solid ship and offense shouldn’t be a major issue, but Stafford doesn’t win big road games and the NFC North still has the Packers. With Minnesota possibly on the rise with Adrian Peterson back, the Lions may have seen their window close.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina made the playoffs as an average 8-8 team a year ago and they beat a Cardinals team in the playoffs that had an elite defense and very little else. With the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints both adjusting to make a better go of it in 2015, I can’t see an average team winning this division in 2015. That means Cam Newton needs to be better than ever and the elite defense we saw in 2014 needs to return, full-time. It might, but there simply are no guarantees.

Dallas Cowboys

This is NFC team #4 that I’m slightly afraid could miss out on the playoffs this year. The Seahawks and Packers are too stout to be taken out of the equation, but all four of these NFC teams mentioned have serious flaws. Dallas is not immune to change and they could endure a lot of it in 2015. For one, some think last year’s run was a fluke and in an NFC East division that has a good amount of talent, it’s never easy to repeat as the divisional champ. That could be bad news for the ‘Boys in a conference that has seen a 10-6 team miss the playoffs in back to back seasons. DeMarco Murray is gone, Dallas has no real answer for him, Dez Bryant is threatening to holdout and the Cowboys still don’t have a very good defense. I like Tony Romo and it’s possible any running back could go nuts behind their monstrous o-line, but it’s also possible they made a huge mistake by letting Murray walk.

Pittsburgh Steelers

There isn’t a lot to hate about the Steelers, but their defense lacks any real imposing threats these days and has a lot of growing up to do. Considering they’re in a division with three very good defenses and all they have to bring to the table these days is offense, that could spell trouble. Also troubling is running back Le’Veon Bell being slated to serve a three-game suspension to start the year and star wide receiver Antonio Brown threatening to holdout. Pittsburgh has talent and could easily make the playoffs, but the AFC in general is tough and they may need to win their division to get in. That’s no guarantee, especially after the Ravens and Bengals both made the playoffs with them a year ago.

New England Patriots

It sounds crazy to even begin to consider writing off the Pats, but Tom Brady is currently slated to serve a four-game ban and the Super Bowl hangover could be in full effect. Regardless of Brady’s status, New England also has a ton of questions on defense, where they lost their top two cornerbacks and Vince Wilfork is no longer around to man the middle of the defensive line. Even worse is the rest of the AFC East is getting better, as the Dolphins, Bills and Jets all have the goods to make a run at the division crown.