Two years ago the Carolina Panthers looked like the best team in the NFC South after securing the division with a 12-4 record. That got them into the second round of the playoffs and had them going into last year as potential Super Bowl contenders. They weren’t really that, but they did win the division again in a down year, and for the second straight season made it to the second round of the playoffs.

More of the same for Carolina in 2015? Maybe, but they’re not necessarily the favorite. Atlanta is.

The NFC South odds certainly promote randomness this year, as the Atlanta Falcons (+200) are slightly ahead both the Panthers (+210) and New Orleans Saints (+225), with just the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550) being the only pick that doesn’t seem legit.

In other words, Vegas thinks Jameis Winston can’t lead Tampa Bay back to the playoffs in 2015 and beyond that, the NFC South is a total toss up. We largely agree. Winning the division would mean the Bucs go from one of the worst teams in the league (they had the top pick in this year’s draft, mind you) to a playoff team. That’s just unlikely to happen. That being said, they’re the funnest bet in this division, as they’re the only one that produces serious money if they win, while the gaps between the top three teams don’t seem wide and are virtually impossible to gauge.

The Panthers correctly are not the full blown favorite, though. Kelvin Benjamin is done for the year with a torn ACL, Greg Hardy is gone forever and Carolina only won the division with a paltry 8-8 mark in 2014. New Orleans went out of their way to improve their offensive line, ground game and defense, while the Falcons did much of the same. If anything, the Bucs are a random dark horse and the Saints or Falcons are vying for the division lead.

The odds are just tied tightly together, is the problem. For a division like the NFC South, you just need to use logic and ignore the odds. That, or fade it completely when it comes to NFL betting. If you’re giving it a try, though, the Bucs are too far out there, Carolina is probably headed for a collapse and the Falcons and Saints are both now just good enough to stay above .500.

So, who gets it done? I like the Saints. Drew Brees is still a very good quarterback and this is a team that can help out a sad sack defense by running the ball with Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller. It’s not a tough pick in a division drowning in mediocrity, but it’s not necessarily obvious, either. But if there is a leader, it feels like the Saints. And with the third best odds in the division, you’ll even get a minor return on your investment if you bet on them to win the division.