Analyzing NFL Super Bowl Odds For Week 2
The first week of the NFL season can be dangerous, as amazing performances or poor efforts can give way to crazy knee-jerk reactions. If we go off of what we saw in week one, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson are done, Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t what we thought he was and Carlos Hyde is a God amongst men.
That’s just individual performances, too. If we base everything off of what happened in week one, the St. Louis Rams are for real, the Seattle Seahawks are in regression and the San Francisco 49ers are destined to prove everyone wrong and win it all.
Who knows, maybe to some extent all of that is correct. But it’s one week. Hey, Manning already proved our assessment of his play a week ago wasn’t spot on, as he tossed three touchdowns to help Denver top the Chiefs in Kansas City. Oh, the difference a week makes.
That doesn’t mean some of what we saw this past week wasn’t real and can’t hold true. But some of the jumps in 2015 NFL Super Bowl odds definitely are cause for pause. Again, it’s early and there’s no way in knowing what is right or wrong and what is up or down. But if you think you have a pretty good grasp on the reality of the 2015 NFL season, you may want to take advantage of the shift in Super Bowl odds.
Cincy Jungle, a Bengals blog at SB Nation, took some time to break down the Super Bowl odds going into the first week of the season, compared to what they look like going into week two. The changes are alarming in spots.
What Hasn’t Changed
Let’s just get this out of the way. The Jaguars, Redskins, Raiders, Buccaneers and Browns haven’t been given a break. They’re still picked, and rightfully so, to be just all kinds of awful. I’m sure we can all agree to that. The Tennessee Titans are still not given a ton of credit for their week one demolition of the Buccaneers, but they did see a decent job from 200/1 odds to 75/1 odds.
The teams at the top have largely stayed the same, too. Green Bay and New England both won, so they’re the current picks to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl. Seattle lost to the Rams but they hold strong as the third best team.
One team that didn’t look good last week and certainly were penalized for it were the Indianapolis Colts. They entered the year with 17/2 odds to win it all, which put them in the Super Bowl against the Packers. Their road loss to the Bills dropped them down, though, but not by much. Still, they’re no longer the favorite to emerge out of the AFC. After one game. What gives, Vegas?
Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Minnesota and Detroit all saw minor dips, too. A lot of people liked the Steelers or Ravens to win it all this year, while the Vikings and Lions were both sexy sleeper picks to make a run. They still could, while the Steelers at full strength could still be dangerous. Baltimore’s defense also looked pretty legit, as well, so if their offense can get on track they could still be a serious threat.
We can’t knock any of that, though. Nor can we knock ascensions of the Bengals, Chiefs and Cardinals. All three got it done on offense and won their openers, but they also all looked fantastic on defense. Of all the teams that saw some change, though, the most interesting was without a doubt the Buffalo Bills. It looks like Rex Ryan’s defense is legit as can be after dismantling Andrew Luck and the Colts. They even did it with Sammy Watkins getting zero catches and LeSean McCoy being at less than 100%. Oh, and Tyrod Taylor made his NFL starting debut. Just, wow. That all helped Buffalo’s case quite a bit, as they went from decent 50/1 odds to nice 25/1 odds. Something tells me if they upset the Patriots this week, they’re going to see a nice spike again going into week three.
All of that out of the way, this really does seem like a pretty wide open NFL season. It’s just one week, but no clear juggernaut appear present. Every team has a visible weakness at the moment and no one really seems capable of going 16-0 or anything. We’ll learn more in week two, but for now it’s anyone’s game when it comes to betting on this year’s Super Bowl winner.