Stud: Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater had an unfortunate offseason. His disappointing pro day put a big dent in his draft stork. Now, most draft analysts have pegged Bridgewater as the third best quarterback in this draft, behind Bortles and Manziel. Some have predicted Bridgewater will slip out of the first round entirely.

Don’t believe it. These analysts seem to have a short memory. They don’t remember the player that led Louisville to an upset win over a highly touted Florida defense in the 2012 Sugar Bowl. They don’t remember the player who responded to a mountain of pre-season hype by putting up a remarkable touchdown to interception ratio of 31 to 4 and a completion percentage of 71% in 2013.

Bridgewater has a more polished technique than any of the quarterback prospects this year. He reads plays before the snap like a pro, and he seems to reserve his best play for the biggest games. His short to intermediate accuracy is excellent. He may have the lowest ceiling of the top quarterbacks this year, but he also has the highest floor. I don’t see him making it past the top 5 picks this year, and whatever team picks him, whether it’s the quarterback-needy Texans, Jaguars, or Browns, they will immediately get an effective starter.

Wild Card: Johnny Manziel

No quarterback has more potential than Johnny Football. After his Heisman winning freshman season, many criticized him as a Tebow-like prospect that knew how to game at the college level, but would not translate well to the NFL. Manziel responded to that criticism well, focusing less on rushing in his sophomore season and improving his skills as a pocket passer. His pocket presence is incredible; he seems to have eyes in the back of his head to detect the incoming pass rush.

But there are some serious concerns with Manziel’s style of play. He tries to force a play sometimes when he should throw it away, and his intermediate accuracy is not consistent. These traits could cause Manziel to lose a lot of games, but his playmaking abilities could cause him to win just as many if not more. This mix of qualities will lead Manziel to be either a resounding success or a complete bust.

Duds: Blake Bortles and Derek Carr

A lot of mocks out there have the Texans taking Bortles at first overall. I just don’t see it. Yes, unlike the rest of the top tier quarterbacks this year, Bortles has the prototypical size you look for in a franchise signal caller. But everything else about his game is remarkably average. His intermediate accuracy is worse than Bridgewater, and his deep ball is worse than Manziel’s. There are better quarterbacks in this draft.

The lingering memory of the colossal bust that was David Carr does help his brother, Derek, who is projected to be selected late in the 1^st round this year. But bloodlines aren’t the only reason Carr is listed as a dud here. Carr has one of the worst qualities a NFL quarterback can have: he does not handle pressure well, rushing his throws when the pocket is collapsing around him. This leads to a lot of unnecessary interceptions, and will make teams think twice before picking him in 2014.