Fantasy Sleeper Profile: QB Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)
Concerns about his recent back surgery and a misguided myth that defines Romo as a 4th-quarter choker have many fantasy owners avoiding him like the plague. In most 12-team, 16 round drafts Romo can be found in Round 9 or lower. His draft stock does not represent his true value: you should pick Romo if he falls this far.
By the end of Round 2 Peyton Manning will be gone, by the end of Round 3 Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely also be off the board. Don’t be the owner that makes the mistake of taking a QB this high: while a big name like Manning, Rodgers, or Brees is enticing, remember that the difference in production between an elite fantasy quarterback and an above-average quarterback is minimal compared to the difference in production between elite running backs and wide receivers and above-average running backs and wide receivers. You’ll be better off going with a RB or WR in the first few rounds of your fantasy draft. Take a QB later.
Back to Romo’s reputation as a choker: Yes, Tony-boy did cost the Cowboys a playoff game with his muffed field goal hold in the 2006 NFL playoffs. In the minds of many sports fans, that one play was enough to carve Romo’s face into the Mount Rushmore of choke artists, perhaps alongside Bill Buckner and Jean Van de Velde.
This is just one of many cases in life where perception does not match up to reality. Turns out, Romo is more productive in the 4th than any other quarter, and no other quarterback in the league (no, not even Manning, Rodgers, or Brees) matches Romo’s efficiency as a game is winding down. Romo has amassed a 102.1 passer rating and 44 touchdowns to only 18 interceptions in all the 4th quarters he has played in his career. If Romo played like that in every quarter, he would be a bona fide Top 5 quarterback. As it stands now, he is still a Top 10 quarterback more likely to get you a 300 yards and multiple touchdown game than most QBs.
Also, consider the weapons Romo has at his disposal. WR Dez Bryant is a Round 1 fantasy talent currently hitting the prime of his career. RB Demarco Murray is a borderline Round 1, more likely Round 2 fantasy talent who is just as effective as a receiver as he is as a rusher. He can turn a short pass that barely breaches the line-of-scrimmage into a long gain.
Veteran tight end Jason Witten is also a viable receiving threat. Dallas has more talent at receiver than any team outside of Dallas or Detroit, and this is sure to pad Romo’s stat sheet. And did I mention the Dallas o-line is one of the best pass blocking lines in the league? Romo couldn’t ask for a better situation than what he has now with the Cowboys.
And fantasy owners couldn’t ask for a better situation for a Cowboys QB. This Dallas squad has a good offense and a terrible defense: a recipe that will lead to the Cowboys having to air the ball out to keep up with all the points their defense gives up, allowing Romo more opportunities for fantasy points.
Injuries and age are to catch up with Romo some season down the road. But don’t expect 2014 to be that season. Pick him now.
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