The Indianapolis Colts are the kings of the AFC South and it’s really not even close. They’re picked to represent the AFC in the 2015 Super Bowl, for crying out loud. Naturally, they’re 1/5 odds to take the division once again. Andrew Luck and co. have gone 11-5 every year he’s been in the league and they’ve been to the playoffs all three times, so there’s no much reason to bet against them.

Or is there?

There are still three other teams in this division, and with Indy looking like such heavy favorites, putting down even a small amount of money on a different AFC South team could end up being highly profitable. The question is, which of the other three teams – Houston Texans (13/4), Tennessee Titans (25/1) or Jacksonville Jaguars (25/1) – is worth that shot in the dark?

The answer is pretty easy – the Houston Texans. At least, that was the answer before Arian Foster went down with a serious groin injury. Out at a minimum for the next three months, Foster’s absence creates a massive hole for a run-heavy offense. They don’t really have a quarterback and now they don’t even have a running back. The sad part is, even with that harsh reality, they still really are Indy’s biggest threat.

Yeah, it’s that bad. But the Jags and Titans do have one thing going for them: upside. Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles both have tons of talent and are loaded with potential. In theory, if they both were to develop, say, like Andrew Luck did in his first season or two, both could very easily have a moderately competitive team on their hands. That makes their 25/1 odds especially attractive.

If none of these teams are serious threats to dethrone the Colts, your options are simple: you either bet the farm on Indy and take a mild profit, or you bank on one of these would-be trash teams progressing extremely quickly and shocking the world by winning the AFC South. If one is going to do it, I think it’s the Jaguars. They have a pretty good defense, a new feature back in T.J. Yeldon, a stud tight end in Julius Thomas and a solid corps of wide receivers. The rest hangs on Bortles. If he can just be competent, we could be looking at a 9-7 team here. Is that enough to take down the Colts? Probably not, but it’s tentatively not the worst bet you could make this year.